June 9 ... euphoria or regained freedom?

Today I am wary about that impending perspective. Will Wednesday, June 9, be a tipping point? People and businesses are looking more than ever to see how much the government will loosen the reins that day. 

How much are restrictions on the number of mutual social contacts reduced? Will more hugging contacts be allowed? Will the "social distancing" rule expire in the private sphere? Will we no longer have to wear mouth masks? In short, are we (already) returning to the pre-pandemic regime? The arc between politicians and virologists is tense. How far we can relax without giving oxygen back to the epidemic remains to be seen. It is imperative that we avoid a repeat of last year's scenario. We were also overconfident with easing during those summer months. The second corona wave broke the euphoria then. 

With the difference that things are different today. The vaccination campaign is running at full speed - a successful titanic effort courtesy of thousands of volunteers. Moreover, corona rates were structurally declining in recent weeks. Still, we should not be blindsided. The pressure on health workers will not ease any time soon. A lot of medical treatments for non-Covid patients were postponed and the hospitals want to catch up.

Despite the positivism among the majority of businesses - according to the National Bank, business confidence rose last month to its highest level in 14 years - the labor market is entering a difficult period. The scarcity of talent continues to grow, despite expectations that unemployment, and thus supply, will rise when support measures are discontinued. Moreover, our economists unfortunately expect the number of restructurings and bankruptcies to peak later this year. Not for nothing did the FEB continue to insist in recent months that, in addition to temporary liquidity measures, there is an urgent need for structural solvency measures.

Finally, the "return to work" will also test the adaptability of both employees and employers. Such a return, and thus the phasing out of telecommuting, is necessary to boost the reboot of our economy. But the new labor norm, which is somewhere between physical presence and telecommuting, also requires an agile labor organization.

We can hope for more freedom. Perspective, however, does not mean all brakes off. The line between euphoria and common sense is wide enough that we should not be misled. Just because an easing is allowed does not mean it must be. Let us watch in solidarity for the prospect of our regained freedom and reap the fruits of all the efforts we have sustained together for more than a year. Let us keep our distance where useful, decontaminate hands and wear mouth masks. Let us companies organize labor flexibly so that we can reboot or restart. Let us entrepreneurs seize the opportunities we will have on June 9 to prepare optimally for the new normal starting in September. In other words, let us not be led by euphoria, but by common sense.